#DLGPOLLTRIX2019 | Day-1 | For whom will NORTH GUJARAT vote in Lok Sabha 2019?

AHMEDABAD | GANDHINAGAR | RAJKOT – North Gujarat, region of the state receiving brightest sunlight for highest number of days, adjoining the border state of Rajasthan, is a partial mix of vegetation and dry desert type area.

The region is dominant in the dairy industry with Banas River giving green pastures for the cattle in the area to let the Asia’s Number One milk producing Banas Dairy flourish tremendously.

Solar installations in the region have picked-up since the state government kicked-off the projects to untap the potential of the region receiving brightest sunlight in the state for highest number days, with Charanka Solar Park in the region, attracting investments from across the world, aided by World Bank.

For Lok Sabha polls, North Gujarat territories compriese of  :-

1) S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02
2) S-06 | PATAN | 03
3) S-06 | MEHSANA | 04
4) S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05

The population across North Gujarat largely comprises of a mix dominated by Kshatriyas, Thakors, Patels, Dalits, Tribals, Muslims, OBC-SC-ST communities.


POLL MATHEMATICS


In year 2009 out of 4 constituencies in North Gujarat region, 2 Constituencies were won by Indian National Congress (INC) and 2 constituencies were won by Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).

In 2009 INC Won …

  1. S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02 was won by GADHVI MUKESHKUMAR BHAIRAVDANJI by margin of 10,301 votes, victory margin voteshare of just 1.59%
  2.  S-06 | PATAN | 03 was won by JAGDISH THAKOR by margin of 18504 votes, victory margin voteshare of just 2.92%


In 2009 BJP Won …

3) S-06 | MEHSANA | 04 was won by PATEL JAYSHREEBEN KANUBHAI by margin of 21,865 votes, victory margin votershare of just 3.16%.

4) S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05 was won by CHAUHAN MAHENDRASINH by margin of 17,160 votes, victory margin voteshare of just 2.39%.


In year 2014, all 4 Constituencies of NORTH GUJARAT were won by Bharatiya Janta Party.

  1. S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02 was won by CHAUDHARY HARIBHAI PARTHIBHAI by margin of 2,02,334 votes, victory margin voteshare of 23.28%.
  2. S-06 | PATAN | 03 was won by LILADHAR KHODAJI WAGHELA by margin of 1,38,719 votes, victory margin voteshare of 14.70%.


3) S-06 | MEHSANA | 04 won by PATEL JAYSHREEBEN KANUBHAI by margin of 2,08,891 votes, victory margin voteshare of just 21.04%

4) S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05 won by RATHOD DIPSINH SHANKARSINH by margin of 84,455 votes, victory margin voteshare of just 7.88%


TRANSFORMATION


Data on numbers of voters across all four constituencies in North Gujarat lets us understand and allows us to pivot in a direction to see as to what has really transformed in terms of numbers, in 2009 and 2014 – two consecutive polling years.

It gives us a fair idea on how the number of voters increased, further making an impact on the voter turnaround, followed by comparative voter growth over the years from 2009 till 2019.


METHODOLOGY


Considering the 2019 data of number of voters, the projected data comprises of 3 possibilities ie 1% dent in turnaround, as it is situation and 1% rise in the turnaround, leads to significant increase in number of voters, for year 2019.

Considering 1% as probable projected benchmark, the pendulum can be moved on negative side and on positive side, from the as it is situation ie 0% change in turnaround as compared to voter turnaround in year 2014.

Such projections give a clear-cut picture on horizon, as to what possibilities lie in terms of number, if either situation develops and using the 1% data – the results on multiple scale can be projected.

If the voter turnaround increases by 5% as compared to the voter turnaround of 2014 the result will be the outcome of numbers as concluded on 1% rise multiplied by 5 times, ie if 1% rise concludes the rise of 100,000 new voters than 5% rise would mean 500,000 voters will make to the polling booth.


FACEBOOK LIVE LINK  ANNOUNCING THE LAUNCH OF
#DLGPOLLTRIX2019 & EXPLAINIG THE METHODOLOGY


#DLGPOLLTRIX2019 – THE NUMBER WARS for NORTH GUJARAT, marks the launch of DATA JOURNALISM initiative from #DLGANALYTICS, DATELINE GUJARAT DATA ANALYTICS, DATELINE GUJARAT – TRULY FIRST, NOW & ALWAYS and https://datelinegujarat.com

Posted by Himanshu R. Bhayani on Thursday, 11 April 2019


If the voter turnaround decreases by 5% as compared to the voter turnaround of 2014 the result will be the outcome of numbers as concluded on the 1% decline multiplied by 5 times, ie if 1% decline concludes dent of 100,000 new voters than the 5% decline would mean 500,000 voters will not make it to the polling booth.

However, on negative side there is a certain resistance level in over all turnout and male-female segment turnout.

We leave it to the readers and viewers who can better calculate in their own manner, keeping in view several conditions including campaigning, local factors affecting turnout numbers, prevalent weather & climate etc.

If the defined resistance level is crossed, it would mean dent in number of voters making to the polling booth even less than 2014 turnaround.


ACTUAL SCENARIO


However, the actual numbers of voter turnaround can only be known on April 23, 2019 – Tuesday night, once the entire data of voter turnaround is compiled by the Government and made public.

Whatever the voter turnaround be on Tuesday, April 23, 2019, which candidate has benefitted from the phenomena will be clear on May 23, 2019 – Thursday, once the results of Lok Sabha 2019 polls are declared.

The journey now from here is largely in IMAGES …


The Number details for the S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here.

02 BANASKANTHA NUMBERS

02 BANASKANTHA GRAPHS


The Number details for the S-06 | PATAN | 03 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES, is narrated here.

03 PATAN NUMBERS

03 PATAN GRAPHS


The Number details for the S-06 | MEHSANA | 04 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here.

04 MEHSANA NUMBERS

04 MEHSANA GRAPHS


The Number details for the S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here.

05 SABARKANTHA NUMBERS

05 SABARKANTHA GRAPHS


CONTENT FROM HERE IS IN GUJARATI LANGUAGE


The Number details for the S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in GUJARATI LANGUAGE.

૦૨ બનાસકાંઠા આંકડાઓ

૦૨ બનાસકાંઠા ગ્રાફ્સ


The Number details for the S-06 | PATAN | 03 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in GUJARATI LANGUAGE …

૦૩ પાટણ આંકડાઓ

૦૩ પાટણ ગ્રાફ્સ


The Number details for S-06 | MEHSANA | 04 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in GUJARATI LANGUAGE …

૦૪ મહેસાણા આંકડાઓ

૦૪ મહેસાણા ગ્રાફ્સ


The Number details for the S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in GUJARATI LANGUAGE …

૦૫ સાબરકાંઠા આંકડાઓ

૦૫ સાબરકાંઠા ગ્રાફ્સ


CONTENT FROM HERE IS IN HINDI LANGUAGE


The Number details for the S-06 | BANASKANTHA | 02 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in HINDI LANGUAGE … 

०२ बनासकांठा लोकसभा के आंकड़े

०२ बनासकांठा लोकसभा के ग्राफिक्स


The Number details for the S-06 | PATAN | 03 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in HINDI LANGUAGE …

०३ पाटन लोकसभा के आंकड़े

०३ पाटन लोकसभा के ग्राफिक्स


The Number details for the S-06 | MEHSANA | 04 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in HINDI LANGUAGE …

०४ महेसाणा लोकसभा के आंकड़े

०४ महेसाणा लोकसभा के ग्राफिक्स


The Number details for the S-06 | SABARKANTHA | 05 – constituency for Lok Sabha 2019, IN IMAGES is narrated here in HINDI LANGUAGE …

०५ साबरकांठा लोकसभा के आंकड़े

०५ साबरकांठा लोकसभा के ग्राफिक्स


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